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Defending “the Decision”
By Kyle | November 16, 2009
This guy says Bill Belichick’s inexplicably hubristic decision to go for it on 4th and two from his own 28 yard line last night, in what already looks like the most infamous NFL coaching miscue in history, was actually a good idea. No, it was idiotic. Why? Because if the Patriots had punted, my Colts probably would have had it around their 25 or 30 yard line. While it’s true that the Peyton Manning-led Colts had just scored a touchdown quickly under similar circumstances, the Patriots had also intercepted him twice and forced him into many three-and-outs. The Patriot defense is rarely going to get that badly burned, even by the great one. But the Decision wasn’t a lack of faith in the Patriots defense; it was total, bull-headed confidence that the Patriots offense would pick up that first down. Hubris. Nobody dreams of going for it from that far back in his own territory because they picture the nightmare consequences of failure. That thought didn’t cross Belichick’s mind. Still, the Patriots were the better football team, by far, last night. If the Colts have to field this team against the Patriots in the playoffs, it doesn’t look good for Peyton and Co. The Colts badly need to get CB Kelvin Hayden and WR Anthony Gonzalez back on the field for the playoffs.
Topics: Sports |
November 16th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
Kyle I have to disagree I don’t think it was hubris, I think it was fear. Too many times he’s seen Peyton kill teams on the last drive and he knew his defense was gassed and wouldn’t be able to hold off a long drive. Either way it was a terrible call.
November 16th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Have a hard time getting too crazy about this. The Colts will probably have the top seed in the AFC and host the AFC title game. The Pats are going to win the AFC East(Thanks, Jets! another year of futility; great work!), but didn’t really have a shot of unseating the Colts from the top spot even if they won. Practically nothing much has changed; the Colts will probably host the Pats in said title game with a SB berth on the line, and it was going to be that way anyway.
November 16th, 2009 at 4:19 pm
Kyle, you had me at “inexplicably.” Fun to watch that arrogant old prick squirm and defend his historically bad call.
But for someone like me who has no (pig)skin in this particular rivalry (I’m on the same kamikaze mission as Bugg, rooting for the J-E-T-S), a Colt-Pats matchup for the conf title would make for some fun bleak-midwinter viewing.
November 16th, 2009 at 11:47 pm
Kyle
I’m curious to know how you became a Colts fan while growing up in Massachusetts.
November 17th, 2009 at 11:50 am
@Pat: Bert Jones. When I became interested in football, in 1976-77, Jones was the most amazing, dynamic football player in the game and the Colts were scrappy underdogs who lost only to the two dominant teams of the era (the Steelers in the 1976 playoffs, the Raiders in a thrilling double-OT loss on Christmas Eve of 1977). Little did I know how much suffering was in storem (one playoff appearance, a loss, between 1978 and 1995), or how much redemption.
I thought choosing a favorite team based on mere geographical proximity
was random. Far more rational to choose a team based on its personality.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
That makes sense. When I started following football in the mid-1990s my favorite player was John Elway (another #7), and a result I rooted for the Broncos during their halycon days. Elway retired when I was 12, so I lost interest in Denver and became a homer (Patriots). I hope that doesn’t sound too fairweather, as within three years the Patriots won their first Super Bowl.
November 17th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
A fake punt in that position, though still crazy, would have been a better call….At least try to fool the Colts.
Those muts on NBC were afraid to criticize Belichump though.
Belichik has won a total of 1 playoff game without Brady (as a head coach).
p.s. That’s right, I’m a Jet fan as well….I’ll go crawl under my rock now.
November 17th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
@ Brian. The Decision was dumb, no doubt. But Belichik is an all-time great coach, so I’ve got to cut him some slack. He took a gamble and it blew up on him, but when you’ve got as many rings as he does, you get some leeway in my book. I am sure many of his crazy gambles paid off in the past. And better for him to make that boneheaded move now, than in the AFC title game.
Before I crawl under that same green rock, remember that many of us fans of the J E T S were salivating when Bill was our coach for a cup of coffee a few years ago, before ditching us for New England.
November 18th, 2009 at 2:45 am
My guess is Bellichick was playing the clock. Either let Manning score with 20 yards to go, and have a chance to get the ball back, or make him drive 80 yards and let him eat the rest of the time up. Of course, the Colts were smart enough not to cash in right away.
All and all, a dumb move. In that position, Manning and company have to be damn near perfect to win that game on an 80-yard drive. Getting out of bounds, not wasting timeouts - a much more difficult task.
Hubris? Maybe, New England and Bellichick are full of it, amongst other things. Next time I bet he punts.
November 18th, 2009 at 12:14 pm
Evidently, the computer agrees with Bill:
http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/zeus-computer-program-supports-belichicks-fourth-down-bid/?ref=football
November 18th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Kyle, I know that you are a reader of Gregg Easterbrook. He wrote a fascinating take on Belichick’s decision. Of course, Easterbrook has long been a proponent on going for it on 4th down no matter what the distance or situation. Personally, I think Belichick gets killed for the decision most simply because it failed.
He compared using one of the best offenses (if not the best) in the NFL achieving a 2 yard completion vs Peyton Manning and an equally talented offense driving 75 yards in 2 minutes with a timeout (which might as well be eons of time).
I hate Belichick. I hate that he cheated. I hate what he stands for. However, I have to give the devil his due. That was one hell of a ballsy call that literally no one else would make.
Kyle, I have to ask of you one more question, being that you are a Colts fan:
Would you rather have Bill Belichick, who goes for it on 4th & 2 at his own 28 in a critical situation, or Tony Dungy, who has to get emasculated on national television by his quarterback who waves off the punt team at midfield after his head coach already decided to punt?
November 18th, 2009 at 11:42 pm
I did read Easterbrook. I note that he lumped together “4th and short” situations. There is a difference between 4th and 1 and 4th and 2. 4th and 1, especially against the Colts, you can just push it up the middle. I’d rate the Pats chance of success at 90 percent or so on 4th and 1. 4th and 2, maybe a pass situation, a lot can go wrong. Maybe it’s a 70 percent chance. I don’t think Peyton’s chances of going all the way from his 30 to the end zone are 70 percent.
That last bit, are you referring to the San Diego game in, I think, 2004, when with about 2:17 left and deep in his own territory Peyton waved off the punt team, then threw a strike to Reggie Wayne on 4th and 12 or something like that? (this was also the game, I believe, in which Peyton broke the single season touchdown record with a pass to Stokely that was no. 49 on the year). I was amazed that Dungy put up with it, but merely by putting up with it he was kinda acknowledging that the true coach of the offense is Peyton, which was interesting but not wrong.
November 19th, 2009 at 10:21 am
If I’m not mistaken, Peyton waved off Dungy’s punt team in at least 3 different major games during Dungy’s tenure.
Keeping this in mind, are we sure Jim Caldwell actually coaches the Indianapolis Colts? Have you ever heard him actually speak? Have you ever seen him even open his mouth on the sideline? Is he just a figurehead like the Queen of England?
If ESPN broke a story today that Peyton Manning is secretly Indy’s Player-Coach, would you be that surprised?
November 19th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I don’t dispute that at all. (Though I don’t remember two other times in which P waved off the punter).
Peyton gets a play from Tom Moore, then usually changes it at the line. Caldwell’s job is to get the defense and special teams in order. But this all goes to show that Peyton is a true revolutionary. You’d have to look at the game in a pretty shallow way (i.e., the way almost all of the announcers do) not to acknowledge that he is in a class of his own, regardless of whether he ever won a Super Bowl.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:09 pm
Nothing you wrote after declaring Belichick’s hubris made any sense. It’s so sad that everyone who doesn’t like him is pouncing on him over this. Anyone with half a brain knows you bet the game on Brady gaining two yards and not on getting a defensive stop on Manning at home in a two minute drill. Besides if they failed they still had a chance to stop him at their own 30. It’s shocking that a decision that should be praised for it’s bravery and a story about a coach putting the chances of his team’s success over media and public perception has turned into this, disgusting.